How does climate change influence regional instability?


Motivated to measure the stability of a country quantitatively and more accurately, our team built a mathematical framework to identify the status of the country. We categorize countries into three states: stable, vulnerable, and fragile state. We arrive at a composite index that considers different factors in the economy, politics, demographics and climate change in a country. Based on the logistic growth model, we create a dynamic system that not only describes the current state of a country but also predicts equilibrium states that the country would approach over time. We utilize a bifurcation plot to depict tipping points between three states for a country.

*The UMAP, Vol.39 Issue 2, p165-186. 22p
Sijia Fan
Sijia Fan
PhD student in Applied Economics and Management

My research interests include empirical finance and environmental economics.