Flooded but Thriving? The Uneven Economic Impact of Floods and Flood Risk

Abstract

I examine the effects of floods and flood risk on US establishments and firms by combining establishment-level data with FEMA flood maps and high-resolution remote sensing. I document significant increases in employment and sales at flooded establishments. Using event study and spatial regression discontinuity around regulatory boundaries, I provide novel evidence that federal flood insurance helps post-disaster recovery. I also find suggestive evidence of positive regional spillovers from federal spending. In contrast, establishments located in high-risk flood zones tend to reduce employment, potentially due to disincentive effects of elevated insurance costs and reduced local economic diversity. At the firm level, I use large language models to classify voluntary flood risk disclosures in 10-K filings and earnings calls. Firms with higher flood exposure are more likely to disclose relevant risks and adjust their operations by reducing their inventories and tangible assets. Meanwhile, I find significant negative stock market reactions to floods, particularly for firms that lack prior flood risk disclosures, have no establishments in high-risk areas, or have not previously experienced major flooding. Overall, my study underscores the role of insurance and risk disclosures in post-disaster recovery, while pointing to the broader economic costs of chronic climate risk exposure and the importance of aligning long-term policy and market incentives to promote sustainable development.

Publication
Job Market Paper